ARDA/ASREC Working Papers Series

Correlations Between Christian Population Changes and Changes in Sovereign Ratings in Countries for the Period Between 2000 to 2012

Dick Slikker

Correlations have been computed for five- and ten-year intervals using linear regression analysis of changes in percentages of Christian populations in over 100 countries and changes in their corresponding sovereign ratings (Moody and Fitch). The base intervals for the Christian population were from 2000 to 2005 and 2000 to 2010. The intervals for the sovereign ratings were 2002 to 2007 (the onset of the present global economic crisis) and from 2002 to 2012. When using total Christian populations per country, statistically significant positive linear correlations were obtained in seven out of eight combinations of data source, rating agency and either five- or ten-year interval. Similar regression models were computed for three subsets of total Christians, namely protestants, evangelicals and Catholics. For these subsets significant correlations were obtained in fourteen of twenty cases, with high sensitivity occurring in the case of evangelicals. Finally, as a matter of additional interest, the same regression analysis was performed for Muslims, with results showing no significant correlations in seven of eight cases and negative correlation in the remaining single case.

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